Teradata stock is falling hard due to guidance here that they may miss revenue targets. Analysts are downgrading the stock… but mostly from Buy to Neutral.
Normally stock prices would not be a relevant topic for this blog… but in this case I believe that the Squeeze I suggested first in October of 2012 and then again in February of this year (here and here) has started to affect Teradata revenues.
Note that the Squeeze should affect Netezza, Exadata, and Greenplum as well… but the effect will not be so directly reflected in the stock prices of IBM, Oracle, or EMC/VMWare/GE.
Related articles
- This Morning: Street Divided over Teradata, FireEye, Believing MSFT’s Cloud, Cheers for CRUS (blogs.barrons.com)
- 1 David vs. 3 Goliaths: Teradata Falls Hard (fool.com)
- Why Teradata Shares Tanked (fool.com)
Is the squeeze because of Hadoop or because of adapting too slowly to changed markets? Or both?
I believe that the Teradata exec and tech management team is pretty solid… So I’m more inclined to blame Hadoop.
With that said… After leading the database tech world into the scale-out/shared nothing architecture… They have not led much since. The big architectural advances: column store, in-memory, OLTP+Analytics in a single store; have been led by others.
Hey, Teradata has Aster Data now, they are “all in” on Hadoop 😉
So it clearly must be something else!
Not really… The point is that Hadoop will drive down the price/TB at the high end and reduce or destroy Teradata’s ability to make money there. Aster is an attempt to compete with Hadoop. There is clearly room to compete with Hadoop on a technical level… for awhile. It is less clear that Aster can maintain a technical advantage over the long run, or even the medium run, given the amount of R&D investment in the Hadoop space. Worse still, it is less certain that there is a commercial opportunity to compete at the price points set by Hadoop.
It seems that the Teradata strategy is to sell into their customer base… Taking advantage of the short term tech lead, advantage of tighter integration with the Teradata database, and the advantage of a loyal customer base.
Agreed. There wasn’t much trara after the acquisition and the “Hadoop integration” announcement.
As a customer I would ask myself how innovative this company is.
I didn’t know you were a Teradata customer, Andreas… ;).
Well, stranger things have occurred 😉
EMC/VMware/GE is actually called Pivotal…
I like the x-axis of your graph – highly innovative 🙂
I don’t agree on the details of the squeeze, but I agree that old-school MPP databases are quickly becoming legacy baggage… I think the larger Hadoop eco-system is squeezing everything with interesting # of rows (billions plus) by providing a new, modern platform for computing which is way more flexible and more encompassing
http://ofirm.wordpress.com/2013/07/28/the-end-of-the-classical-mpp-databases-era/
Hi Ofir,
Of course it is called Pivotal… but there is no stock price to be affected other than EMC/VMWare/GE.
“Quickly”… I’m not sure. “Legacy”… agree. “Baggage”… there is still a lot more business benefit being generated by the MPP databases than by all of the NoSQL databases times 1000, methinks.
Rob
Yes, I think Rob is right. There is a place for NoSQL (make it quick, and dirrrty), but if you really go down to performance/business knowledge/structure, you always come back to structured data. Hence MPP these days.