I have posted several times about the impact of the Hadoop eco-system on a several companies (here, here, here, for example). The topic cam up in a tweet thread a few weeks back… which prompts this quick note.

Fours years ago the street price for a scalable, parallel, enterprise data warehouse platform was $US25K-$US35K per terabyte. This price point provided vendors like Teradata, Netezza, and Greenplum reasonable, lucrative, margins. Hadoop entered the scene and captured the Big Data space from these vendors by offering 20X slower performance at 1/20th the price: $US1K-$US5K per terabyte. The capture was immediate and real… customers who were selecting these products for specialized, very large, 1PB and up deployments switched to Hadoop as fast as possible.

Now, two trends continue to eat at the market share of parallel database products.

First, relational implementations on HDFS continue to improve in performance and they are now 4X-10X slower than the best parallel databases at 1/10th-1/20th the street price. This puts pressure on prices and on margins for these relational vendors and this pressure is felt.

In order to keep their installed base of customers in the fold these vendors have built ever more sophisticated integration between their relational products and Hadoop. This integration, however, allows customers to significantly reduce expense by moving large parts of their EDW to an Annex (see here)… and this trend has started. We might argue whether an EDW Annex should store the coldest 80% or the coldest 20% of the data in your EDW… but there is little doubt that some older data could satisfy SLAs by delivering 4X-10X slower performance.

In addition, these trends converge. If you can only put 20% of your old, cold data in an Annex that is 10X slower than your EDW platform then you might put 50% of your data into an Annex that is only 4X slower. As the Hadoop relational implementations continue to add columnar, in-memory, and other accelerators… ever more data could move to a Hadoop-based EDW Annex.

I’ll leave it to the gamblers who read this to guess the timing and magnitude of the impact of Hadoop on the relational database markets and on company financial performance. I cannot see how it cannot have an impact.

Well, actually I can see one way out. If the requirement for hot data that requires high performance accelerates faster than the high performance advances of Hadoop then the parallel RDBMS folks will hold their own or advance. Maybe the Internet of Things helps here…. but I doubt it.